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Week 3 Initial Reactions: Bengals 34 Packers 30

  • For a game between two probable playoff teams and for as exciting as it was, it was a really ugly game.
  • Sam Shields just made himself a bunch of money.
  • Jonathan Franklin looked like an absolute stud, except for of course on the 4th and 1 play where he fumbled. I thought Bleacher Report’s Aaron Nagler hit the nail on the head with this tweet.

The Packers have been poor on 3rd and 4th and short for almost the entire Mike McCarthy era. Obviously, that situation is tailor-made for Eddie Lacy, but he missed the game with a concussion. The Packers offensive linemen are almost all finesse blockers who struggle in short-yardage when the defense knows whats coming. Franklin never had a chance. 

  • I tend to not really believe in QB wins or anything that isolates wins and losses to one player, but this tweet from Packer Report was pretty damning.

Yeah, yeah, yeah I get it: the Packers win a lot of games in the first 3 quarters. But for as good as Aaron Rodgers is, he really doesn’t have that defining come-from-behind win in his belt. Just a lot of near-misses like the Arizona playoff game. 

  • I’ve defended the training staff ever since the Super Bowl run when the Packers had 18 players on IR, but enough is enough. Its been how many years of having seemingly a half a dozen injuries on every play. They may be fine medical professionals, this is a results-oriented business. Eventually, no matter how nice you may be or how many good ideas you have, if the main area you are responsible for is constantly under performing, it is time for a change. I can live with having them play out the season, but this season should be the staff’s last. Football is a violent game and things like concussions are borderline unavoidable, but how many soft tissues injuries have the Packers had?
  • Was this Rodgers’ worst game as a pro? Or at least since 2009 in Tampa right?
  • Clay Matthews’ injury was pretty much the end of the Packers’ defense. 20 unanswered points? Come on.
  • Perhaps the most frustrating thing about the loss is not necessarily that they lost, but that it seems like the same things keep happening every game, win or lose. The textbook slow start on offense. The defense fluctuating between dominant and awful.
  • That Week 4 bye is looking awfully attractive now, eh?
  • I have a feeling that Finley leaving the game early really messed with the Packers game plan.
  • Going to be a LONG two weeks. Bring on the Lions.

 

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Week 2 Review: Breaking Down James Starks’ Big Day Against Washington

Eddie Lacy’s production during the preseason, and his relative success Week 1 against one of the toughest defenses in football, had Packers fan excited that 2013 would finally be the year the Packers had at least a competent running game to combine with their elite passing attack. Although the Packers offense has been one of the best in football during the Mike McCarthy era, the gap between the dominating passing game and the suspect running game is arguably the largest in the NFL, especially since the end of Ryan Grant’s first stretch in the Green and Gold. Countless announcers and media members have cited the long stretch since the Packers last a 100 yard back–Brandon Jackson on October 10, 2010 against Washington who basically had one 71 yard scamper which buoyed his overall performance. DaJuan Harris gave Packers fans a bit of hope after his solid end to the 2012 season, but clearly the brain trust felt the running game still needed improvement and gave Stephen Jackson a token offer while also investing a 2nd round pick in RB Eddie Lacy from Alabama and trading up in the 4th round to grab Jonathan Franklin from UCLA. Most fans, including myself, likely left bygones Alex Green and James Starks for dead.

Many fantasy prognosticators predicted a huge day for Lacy in week 2 against a Redskins defense that despite some talent in the front 7 looked awful in Week 1 against Chip Kelley’s uptempo attack. Instead it was James Starks who partied like it was the 2010 playoffs and had a huge day: 20 carries for 132 yards and 1 TD while also adding 36 yards receiving. But was Starks’ huge game a product of strong vision and decisive cut or an improved offensive line performance against a poor defense?

One of my favorite football analyst is Cecil Lammey, who writes and hosts great podcasts for footballguys.com. He has described Starks as a “space runner” nearly his entire career even when Starks was having success during the Packers Super Bowl run in 2010. Lammey means that while Starks can have success when holes are opened up for him in the running game and he’s able to get up to speed, he isn’t close to an elite talent that can start and stop in a hurry or can gain a few yards out of nothing.

But just because Starks lacks the elite physical tools of a C.J. Spiller and Adrian Peterson doesn’t mean Starks can’t have success and be an asset to the Green Bay offense.  While Starks may not have the speed of Spiller or the cutting ability of Adrian, he does have enough speed to get to the second level and enough strength to run through a corner or a safety. But after watching all of Starks’ runs on Sunday, it becomes apparent that he needs some creative play design for him to be effective.

One of the simpler things McCarthy did Sunday to assist Starks was using 11 personnel: 1 back and 1 tight end with 3 wide receivers-almost exclusively Cobb in the slot with Nelson and Jones on either side.  When the down and distance had about even pass/run odds, Jermichael Finley played TE while on more favorable down and distance–and when the Packers were running out the clock in the second– Andrew Quarless manned the position since he is a far superior blocker.  Below is a screenshot of what many of these formations look like:

1-1-3 Formation

Because of how much of a threat the Packers WRs and TEs are, the 11 personnel is able to significantly spread out the Washington defense and now there are just 6 men in the box. The Redskins CBs are playing man while the safeties are playing zone, effectively daring the Packers to run the ball on 1st and 10.  Rodgers would eventually audible into a quick pass into the flat for Starks which gains 6 as shown below:

The combination of the inexperienced Washington secondary and the Packers receiving talent gives amble space for Starks as he is clearly the least talented offensive weapon of Finley, Cobb, Nelson and Jones. Starks had 26 total attempts and targets: 20 rushing attempts, 1 rush that was called back on a penalty, and 5 targets resulting in 4 receptions. The Packers used 11 personnel on 22 of those 26 plays (85%).

The Packers attempted to switch it up a bit after a successful first half in which Starks rushed 8 times for 55 yards (6.9 yards per carry). After running single back, 11 personnel on all 8 of those attempts, the first two plays of the second half went away from that framework. Below is the 1st play of the second half after the Packers defense forced a 3 and out:

The Packers started out with TE Andrew Quarless, FB John Kuhn and Starks in a full house formation with 21 personnel (2 backs, 1 TE). Pre-snap, Quarless goes in motion from the left up-back to a stand-up tight end on the right side, turning the full house into an offset I (The offset I is a 2 back formation where the running back lines up a few yards behind the QB. The fullback or tight end lines up between the QB and RB a yard or two to one side). This signals to the defense that the Packers are trying to run to the right side and simply out-man the Redskins to the far-side of the field. Unfortunately, NT Barry Cofield (who was actually one of the few Washington defenders to have a good game) beats C Evan Dietrich-Smith.  Starks is actually able to brake the tackle, but the damage is done and Starks is tackled for no gain.

Although the pre-snap movement telegraphs to the Redskins that the Packers plan on running to the right side, the play has some nice concepts. Rodgers pre-snap read is likely to the safety on the short-side of the field over Jordy Nelson. If Nelson gets 1 on 1 coverage, Rodgers probably would audible into a deep pattern which the combo has hit on so many occasions during their respective careers. Once the Redskins send one safety high, Nelson sets up for a wide receiver screen which can easily become a splash play if he can break a tackle.

The Packers use the same formation on the very next snap as shown below:

Quarless motions into the slot pre-snap. Rodgers does a quick 3-step drop, but the throw is low and incomplete. Despite the incompletion, the play shows what a strong running game and a versatile player like Quarless can do for an offense. The Packers can use the same personnel for a run or a pass since Quarless excels as a blocker.

Despite the Packers’ failure to gain any yards on the last play, McCarthy again decides to go with a more run-based formation on the next series, this time with 12 personnel (1 back, 2 tight ends-Finley and Quarless) as seen below:

Sitton and Bakhtiari double while Dietrich-Smith is able to get to the second level and get a block on the linebacker. Starks gains 6 yards before contact and drags OLB Ryan Kerrigan for an additional 3. Another win for the Packers’ running game.

Another way the Packers were able to put James Starks in a favorable position to succeed was getting him in space. Unlike with Eddie Lacy against the 49ers, a majority of Starks’ runs were to the outside or at a minimum off tackle. Although Starks is far from a traditional scatback, he is still successful when he runs the stretch play because as mentioned earlier, he can outrun most linebackers but can run over smaller players in the secondary. Below is Starks’ second-longest run of the game (20 yards on the play where Meriweather left the game after leading with his helmet):

Starks takes the ball around the left end, Jordy Nelson makes a strong block on the safety to spring Starks for more yards, while Starks outruns rookie CB David Amerson’s poor angle. Starks shows his long-distance quickness on this run.

Starks ran to the left end or the right end on 11 of his 21 rushing attempts (52%) and off left tackle or right tackle an additional 5 times, meaning 16 of the 21 attempts were to the outside (76%). Interestingly, despite RT Don Barclay’s reputation as a good run blocker, just 5 of the 16 running plays to the outside were to the right side.

But Starks success wasn’t all due to favorable personnel grouping or putting him a position to succeed. Starks also was able to break tackles and found holes to run through. Look no further than Starks’ longest run of the game, the 32 yard touchdown which effectively sealed the game.

Starks gets good blocking on this play as well (Washington also had just 6 in the box), especially from TE Andrew Quarless on a DT, but once he gets up to speed, is able to break two tackles in the secondary, CB David Amerson and S Reed Doughty, and prance into the end zone. Starks got 58 of his 132 yards after contact on the day (44%).

Overall, it was a strong performance in the running game for RB James Starks, the offensive line as well as QB Aaron Rodgers and Mike McCarthy in putting a good player in positions to succeed to the betterment of the team. Sure the Redskins defense aside from their pass-rushers is poor, but ultimately Starks did what he needed to do and gained the yards in front of him.

Toward the end of the game, the Packers largely chose to pass the ball to run out the clock. In his weekly radio show with ESPN Wisconsin‘s Jason Wilde, QB Aaron Rodgers (around the 6:32 mark) mentions that the Redskins crowded the box which made running in the second half of the 4th quarter difficult. The Packers didn’t see an 8 man box the entire 1st half. Sure the game situation dictated that the Redskins needed to stop the run to get their offense back on the field, but the Packers really only need the running game as a viable alternative to set up the pass. And in that situation, it worked.

After watching the film, it appears that Mike McCarthy and Cecil Lammey are in agreement: James Starks is a space runner. But while the term “space runner” may seem like a pejorative term, arguably so was Ryan Grant, who rushed for over 3,300 yards in three straight seasons for the Packers and was their last back to rush for over 1,000 yards in a season. The Packers have shown they don’t need an elite talent at running back to have a top 3 offense, especially against defenses like the Redskins. Eddie Lacy will likely regain the starting running back spot when he returns after the bye week, but Starks’ ability to handle a full workload, as long as he can stay healthy, likely explains why he was given the final running back spot over Alex Green on the initial 53. The task gets tougher next week against the Cincinnati Bengals and All-Pro DT Geno Atkins.

To view my complete notes on all of James Starks’ touches, click here.

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Initial Reactions: Green Bay 38 Redskins 20

  • Huge comeback week for the entire Packers roster. Top to bottom just simply outplayed the Redskins.
  • After solid performances last week, LT David Bakhtiari and RT Don Barclay regressed. While the game was still close, Rodgers was pressured a bit too and the Redskins had more hits than needed against the franchise.
  • Welcome to 2013 James Jones.
  • Impressive showing by James Starks, but also credit the Packers offensive line and guys like John Kuhn and Andrew Quarless for leading the way and opening up up huge holes against an underrated front 7. Special shout-outs to the Packers interior linemen, C Evan Dietrich-Smith, LG Josh Sitton and RG T.J. Lang for an improved performance.  Look for a post later this week charting all of Starks’ carries.
  • Troy Aikman mentioned over and over how much the Redskins struggled with up the middle pressure. Capers must’ve seen the same thing. Dialed up blitzes with 6 and even 7 men more than a handful of times.
  • CBs Sam Shields and Tramon Williams for improved tackling this season, but as the game got out of reach, the Packers’ poor tackling re-appeared.
  • Mike Daniels is a really solid player.
  • @jenbielema, Brandon Meriweather getting a concussion is the definition of karma. Never want to wish injury on a guy, but despite overtures from the leagues and a multitude of fines, he still manages to lead with the crown of his helmet.
  • An inspired outing from the entire Packers defense, but RGIII still just doesn’t look right. Combine that with a suspect secondary, and the Redskins could be on the outside looking in to return to the playoffs.
  • James Starks? Johnny Jolly? Shades of 2010. Did something happen that season?
  • Another strong front 7 beckons next week as the Packers travel to Cincinnati before their Week 4 buy.

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Week 1 Review: How Did David Bakhtiari Hold Up Against The Niners?

It’s no secret that the Packers’ offensive line is one of the weakest positional groups on the entire team, giving up 51 sacks as a unit last season. Certainly some of those sacks are due to QB Aaron Rodgers holding on to the ball for too long, but a vast majority of those sacks ultimately fall on the offensive line. The Packers decided to try and improve the production from the offensive line initially by shifting nearly every returning starter to a new position: RT Brian Bulaga shifted to LT, Pro Bowl RG Josh Sitton to LG, LG T.J. Lang to RG and Marshall Newhouse from LT to a positional battle at RT.

Concerns about the line became even more prevalent when Brian Bulaga tore his ACL during the Family Night Scrimmage, ending his season before it even began. Rookie 4th round pick from Colorado–OT David Bakhtiari–eventually beat out a cast of options and drew the start Week 1 against the vaunted San Francisco Front 7. But how did he perform against one of the league’s best set of pass-rushers, Aldon and Justin Smith?

Before the game, I expected the Packers to send a lot of help in the way of chipping fullbacks and tight ends, but that really was not the case.  Aside from sliding some protections his way and a select few chips and doubles from backs and LG Josh Sitton, Bakhtiari was largely left on an island against the Smith brothers.

Many probably remember the second play from scrimmage when Bakhtiari attempted a low cut block of OLB Aldon Smith, but mistimed it. Smith reacted quickly, jumped over Bakhtiari and was able to sack Rodgers for an 8 yard loss.

Packers fans, including myself, were probably worried after that mistake that Bakhtiari would similarly struggle the rest of the game, causing a chain reaction where the Packers would have to commit a second blocker to the left side for much of the game and limiting their options in the passing game. But the Packers continued to leave him on an island and to his credit, he rebounded to have a really solid game.

On the next series, the Packers had a 3rd and 7 from about midfield. The 49ers ran their trademark defensive line stunt with Justin Smith, with Ahmad Brooks replacing Aldon Smith, as shown below:

The 49ers run this play a lot in obvious passing situations–like 3rd and long–and while Bakhtiari lost his man for a split second, he recovered in time to block Brooks. Unfortunately, breakdowns across the offensive line caused a hurried throw from Rodgers and a 3 and out for the Packers.

In my post about how the Packers tried to defend Colin Kaepernick, I explained how part of what makes it so difficult to defend mobile quarterbacks is getting pressure is almost a negative thing. While Rodgers doesn’t have the elite athleticism that quarterbacks like Russell Wilson and Colin Kaepernick have, his ability to throw on the run may be the very best in the NFL. This is perhaps most apparent than the 31 yard strike to Jordy Nelson in the 4th quarter below who is somehow able to keep both feet in-bounds:

This is probably Bakhtiari’s worst single snap of the game–he gets beat and pancaked almost immediately by Aldon Smith, and arguably gets away with a trip. Finley tries to help and gets just barely enough of Justin Smith to give Aaron Rodgers enough time to fire a strike down-field to Jordy Nelson who makes an incredible catch to pick up Bakhtiari. Plays like this illustrate why he doesn’t have to be Anthony Munoz or Walter Jones for the Packers offense to be successful: he just needs to be a few ticks above adequate.

Although Bakhtiari is a better pass-blocker, he did show some signs of at being at least an average run-blocker. Below is a run play just 2 plays after Nelson’s spectacular catch:

Bakhtiari takes Aldon Smith 1 on 1, blocks him effectively and allows Eddie Lacy to run up field for a 6 yard gain in the red zone. He had at least a half dozen similar blocks on running plays one on one against Aldon. At this point, he isn’t a road-grater by any means, but his success–especially throughout the end of that entire drive–was one of the main reasons Eddie Lacy scored his first NFL touchdown.

Overall, Bakhtiari gave up 2 sacks and 3 pressures, but more than held his own considering the men that lined up across from him and the number of audibles from Rodgers throughout the game. Of the 63 snaps Bakhtiari played, he only had help on 8 of them and some of the help from the running backs were not even necessary. He also had to face one of the best pass-rushers, either Aldon or Justin Smith, across from him on 53 of the 63 snaps. After one game, it seems at the very least he is an upgrade from Marshall Newhouse at LT. 

If I had to grade Bakhtiari’s first game, I would probably give him a B without curving or adjusting for opponent, which I think most Packers fans would take going into Week 1. His job doesn’t get any easier in Week 2 with Brian Orakpo and Ryan Kerrigan manning the outside linebacker positions for the Washington professional football team.

To view my full analysis for every snap of David Bakhtiari’s game against the 49ers, click here.

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Week 1 Review: How The Packers (Tried To) Defend Colin Kaepernick

Following an embarrassing loss to the San Francisco 49ers in last seasons divisional round, highlighted by an NFL record 181 quarterback rushing yards by Milwaukeean Colin Kaepernick, the Packers defense was tasked with trying to stymie the 49ers offensive attack again to open the 2013 season. Some of the Packers’ defensive coaches even took an off-season field trip to College Station, Texas to get some pointers on how to stop the read-option, which gave the Packers defense such fits in January, knowing a rematch was imminent. Countless fans and media members spent the off-season commenting on how exactly the Packers could or would stop it. Judging by the film, the Packers defensive staff did the same.

It took all of three snaps for the impact of Colin Kaepernick’s running abilities to show. Look at the screen shot below.

Image

The Packers defensive line and more specifically outside linebackers Clay Matthews (far left) and Nick Perry (far right) are purposely playing contain to not allow Kaepernick to throw, or perhaps more cynically, dare him to pass. ILB Brad Jones (top-middle) is likely “spying” Kaepernick, following him should he decide to scramble. Special teams ace Jarrett Bush (top-right) also factors in here. As you will see later, he is responsible for Frank Gore if or when he leaks out of the backfield to run a route.

It seems as if the Packers defense has won this down, right? Unfortunately, Kaepernick’s elite athleticism was able to overcome the Green Bay defenses’ contain.

Below is the play in its entirety.

Nick Perry beats TE Garrett Celek (far-right) fairly handily, but because LT Joe Staley does such a good job 1 on 1 with Clay Matthews, Perry’s pressure is not only negated, but serves to flush Kaepernick into the newly created rushing lane along the left sideline.

It was 3rd and long, and one of the few times Packers actually forced the 49ers to punt, but this only happened because of a nice hustle play from Tramon Williams (:12) that prevents the 1st down. Look at the screen shot below:

Kaepernick Scramble 1

Kyle Williams broke off his route to meet Kaepernick up the sideline with plenty of distance for the 1st down, but Kaepernick elected to try and run for the 1st down rather than reset his feet and try to hit Williams in stride without forcing him out of bounds. Considering the success he has had rushing during his his time in the league, it’s hard to disagree with the decision, but in hindsight it was likely the wrong one.

Tramon Williams also deserves a lot of praise for his hustle forcing Kaepernick out of bounds short of the 1st down, especially considering his struggles in the tackling department last season. I also like the addition of Jarrett Bush in certain down-and-distance packages against teams with mobile quarterbacks like the 49ers. Of the Packers linebackers that have played significant snaps, really only Matthews and Brad Jones great out as even above average in coverage. For all of Bush’s inadequacies in coverage, most of his struggles come from playing the ball in the air down-field. He is fully capable of handling a hybrid strong safety-linebacker role that the likes of Roy Williams formerly of the Cowboys and Roman Harper of the Saints play, especially considering the personnel schemes Capers tends to draw up. I think he can handle defending the back out of the backfield or the tight end on a shallow cross.

While the Packers defense won the battle on the 1st drive, they would come up short in a more pivotal position later in the game.

The game was knotted at 21 near the end of the 3rd quarter, but the 49ers were driving and had 1st and 10 from the GB 26. After two nondescript downs–a 1 yard Kendall Hunter run and an incomplete pass, the 49ers had a 3rd and 9 from the GB 25. The 49ers came out in 22 personnel (2 backs, 2 TEs), which is typically a running formation, but because of the versatility and pass-catching ability of Vernon Davis, SF can employs this–and other formations, in seemingly any situation.

The Packers blitz Kaepernick, sending 6 and leaving 5 to cover 4. DE/OLB Mike Neal takes a great angle and beats All-Pro LG Mike Iupati almost instantly.

Mike Neal Mike Iupati

But much like the play above, while Neal makes a great individual play and probably does what he is supposed to do at least as far as rush technique to the B gap (Iupati’s left) it leaves a running lane for Kaepernick to scramble through.

As Kaepernick scrambles from the pocket through the hole created my Mike Neal’s rush, Joe Staley clears out Clay Matthews while Frank Gore adjusts his pass route and makes a huge block on S Jerron McMillian. The run was Kaepernick’s longest of the game–15 yards–and gave San Francisco 1st and goal from the GB 10. The Packers would eventually get away with the breakdown with a Clay Matthews sack two plays later, and held the Niners to just 3 points on the drive.

Looking at the box-score, it appears the Kaepernick and WR Anquan Boldin carved up the Packers anemic secondary, and there certainly is validity to that statement. But it overlooks the fact that the Green Bay went all out to prevent Kaepernick from beating them with his legs as he did in the Divisional Round. Neither of the following plays were from read-option looks, or even designed runs. But what makes new age quarterbacks such as Kaepernick, Cam Newton, and Russell Wilson so effective and difficult to defend is that the threat of the run is enough to force the complete reconfiguration of a defense. 

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